7.SP.C.7: Probability models

Also written as 7.SP.7

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

In plain words: Students build probability models, from equally likely outcomes or from observed frequencies, use them to find probabilities, and explain gaps between the model and real results.

Quick picks

GoblinsExample problem
You roll a fair 6-sided die.
What is ?
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Common mistake
Expecting results to match the model exactly: a fair die rolled 12 times does not have to show each number twice.
Builds on
7.SP.C.5Probability from 0 to 17.SP.C.6Experimental probability
Leads to
7.SP.C.8Compound eventsHSS.CP.A.1Events and sample spaces
7.SP.C.7.aUniform modelsDevelop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.7.SP.C.7.bModels from dataDevelop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
Example Problems
A bag contains 9 blue candies, 7 red candies and 5 green candies.
A candy is chosen from the bag at random.

Find the probability that the candy is: Not Orange
A letter is selected at random from the word F I B O N A C C I.

Find the probability that the letter is: Not A
Write your answer as a fraction or as a decimal rounded to the nearest hundredth.
A bag contains 9 blue candies, 7 red candies and 5 green candies.
A candy is chosen from the bag at random.

Find the probability that the candy is: Yellow
Khan Academy Resources
Goblins

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